You may have seen the viral social media videos claiming that “Las Vegas’ future is doomed!” Influencers are sounding the alarm, saying the Strip is deserted, hotels are hemorrhaging millions, and the city’s tourism industry is in decline.
But is Sin City really in trouble? The truth is, while Las Vegas is navigating a tourism dip, the situation is far less catastrophic than the online fearmongers would have you believe – and certain sectors are even thriving.
How do we know? We’ve gone straight to the source, tapping local industry experts and exclusive economic data to cut through the noise and uncover what’s really happening in town.
Let’s dive into the real story behind the headlines.
Nevada Stupak, President of Stupak Las Vegas, met with three local experts at a CCIM luncheon to discuss the latest economic data, current trends, and future projects. This article summarizes their discussion. You can watch the full interview below.
Industry professionals featured in this article include:
- Steve Hill: CEO/President, Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA)
- Frank Volk: Executive Vice President, Coldwell Banker Richard Ellis (CBRE)
- Ryan Doherty: Founder, Corner Bar Management
Video: Watch the Full Interview
Economy Snapshot: Vegas’ Tourism Data
To begin, let’s unpack the most recent data from the LVCVA to better understand the economic impact of fewer visitors on the city.
We will review current tourism numbers, hotel occupancy levels, average daily room rates (ADR), and revenue per available room (RevPAR).
Additionally, we will share insights from Steve Hill and compare the data to 2019 – the year before the pandemic began. This comparison will serve as our benchmark for evaluating Las Vegas’ ideal performance level.
Visitor Statistics
The data sparking concern about the city’s future is the tourist volume for 2025. Since 2021, we have seen annual traffic growth of a few million visitors, but that all changed in January of this year.
So let’s take a look at the historical numbers first, and then we’ll get into more detail about the 2025 decline.
Historical Visitation
The numbers below show the annual volume from 2019 to 2024, along with the year-over-year (YoY) growth since the pandemic:
- 2024: 41,676,300 (+2.07%)
- 2023: 40,829,900 (+5.15%)
- 2022: 38,829,300 (+20.47%)
- 2021: 32,230,600 (+69.4%)
- 2020: 19,031,003 (pandemic low, -55.25%)
- 2019: 42,524,000 (pre-COVID benchmark)
The following chart shows the visitor volume from 2019 to 2024, highlighting the recovery trajectory after the pandemic.
2025’s Downward Trend
However, beginning in January of this year, every month has experienced a decline in tourist numbers compared to the same month in the previous year. The most significant drops occurred in February, June, and July of 2025, with decreases of around 11 to 12%.
When comparing the first seven months of 2024 to 2025, there is an average decline of 8%.
Hotel Occupancy Rates
The shortage of tourists is noticeably impacting occupancy. However, there is a bigger story behind these numbers: some hotel operators are purposely lowering their occupancy levels.
Historical and Current Occupancy
In 2019, hotel occupancy on the Strip reached an impressive 90.41%. Since then, the rate has returned to around 85%, which is still a few percentage points lower than the figures from 2019.
Here are the average occupancy percentages from recent years:
- 2025*: 84.09%
- 2024: 86.41%
- 2023: 86.18%
- 2022: 81.58%
- 2021: 67.66%
- 2020: 42.14%
- 2019: 90.41%
*2025 data is the average rate from January through July 2025.
The chart below illustrates the fluctuations in Las Vegas hotel occupancy from 2019 to 2025:
Strategic Reduction in Occupancy
According to Steve Hill, though, some hotels have made strategic financial decisions to maintain higher levels of customer service by intentionally reducing their occupancy.
This intentional reduction accounts for about 1.5 to 2.0 percentage points. As a result, the current levels are not as far from 2019 levels as the data might suggest, although they are still lower.
Las Vegas Continues to Outpace National Trends
Despite the recent dip, Las Vegas maintains its position as the leader in occupancy rates across the nation, just as it did in 2019.
According to STR, a well-known provider of hotel industry data, the average hotel occupancy rate in the United States was 63% in 2024 and is projected to be 63.38% in 2025, as reported by OysterLink. In comparison, we’re still performing very well.
High-End Hotels Steady, Budget Segment Dips
Steve Hill provides even more insight into the decline in occupancy. He notes that the drop is not across all hotel segments.
In fact, the top third of high-end hotels are experiencing no issues at all; their bookings remain steady, consistently in the 90s.
Hill points out that the decline is primarily affecting lower-tier hotels. It is this bottom third of the market, which caters to budget-conscious travelers, that is driving the overall decrease.
Average Daily Room Rate
So, does this mean that the “low-cost” hotels in Vegas are priced too high, making it too expensive for budget-conscious travelers to visit?
Not according to Steve Hill, who believes that the average daily room rates are not the root cause of challenges faced by some customers.
Hill suggests that people across the country are worried about their jobs and financial situations, which is causing them to hesitate when it comes to traveling.
And hotel operators appear to agree with him, because ADR continues to remain elevated.
Rising Room Prices Amid Declining Visitors
In 2019, our ADR was nearly at the national average. Since then, the national average ADR has increased by 22%, while Las Vegas has experienced an even greater increase in its average hotel room rates.
Comparing the average daily rates from January through July in 2019 to the same period in 2025, our ADR has risen by approximately 35%.
This increase is particularly significant because we currently have 2.18 million fewer people than we recorded in 2019 when comparing the first seven months of this year to the same timeframe in 2019.
Although we are observing a slight drop in ADR (down 3.4% year-over-year when comparing July 2025 to July 2024), it seems that the city is still focused on maximizing its ADR at this time.
Average Daily Room Rate by Year: Las Vegas Area & YoY change
- 2025*: $180.65 (-6.53%)
- 2024: $193.28 (+1.19%)
- 2023: $191.01 (+12.56%)
- 2022: $169.69 (+28.75%)
- 2021: $131.80 (+25.02%)
- 2020: $105.42 (-20.55%)
- 2019: $132.69
*2025 data is the average daily room rate from January through July 2025.
RevPAR
With visitation and ADR down, the combination has seen a 9% average decline in revenue per available room so far this year.
Notably, July 2025’s RevPAR dropped 12.1% compared to July 2024. And in June, it dropped approximately 14% (YoY).
According to Steve Hill, this decline is the largest observed this century, except for periods of crisis. It has been 30 years since we experienced such a downturn without a crisis affecting the market.
This sounds somewhat scary, but as Frank Volk pointed out…
Let’s say we’re 7% down for the year (overall) here in Vegas. Vegas at 93% is better than almost any other market in the country at 100%. So I think that’s an important thing to keep in front of us.
Average Revenue per Available Room: Las Vegas Area & YoY Change
- 2025*: $146.83 (-9.10%)
- 2024: $161.54 (+1.24%)
- 2023: $159.56 (+17.96%)
- 2022: $135.27 (+48.51%)
- 2021: $91.08 (+81.17%)
- 2020: $50.27 (-57.33%)
- 2019: $117.83
*2025 data is the average RevPAR from January through July 2025.
Changing Trends
Because of the decline in visitation, Las Vegas is taking steps to change how it caters to visitors by focusing on budget-friendly options. The city is also responding to new trends like less alcohol consumption and using special events to engage guests.
These strategies aim to attract a wider range of travelers and meet their different preferences.
Targeting a Price-Sensitive Audience
Steve Hill points out that hotels catering to budget-conscious tourists will need to increase their responsiveness to attract guests.
We’re already observing some shifts, such as the elimination of resort fees, and it’s likely that more properties will follow. This creates an excellent opportunity for travelers to score better pricing.
Currently, the LVCVA is promoting the city as a destination that offers something for every budget.
Visitors can have an enjoyable experience here, regardless of their financial situation, thanks to the numerous hotels, restaurants, and attractions available at various price points.
Less Drinking
Ryan Doherty is one of the most successful entrepreneurs in town. He owns almost a dozen venues, primarily focused on Downtown Vegas (East Fremont St), and is now expanding into the Arts District.
He’s observed that the 21-27 age group is still out in full force, but this demographic is drinking significantly less. In previous years, they would typically consume three to four drinks per night, but now they are drinking only one or two drinks.
This shift indicates that they are either extremely price-sensitive or simply drinking less than previous generations. To combat this loss in revenue, Ryan has increased the door price, and it’s working well.
Free Events
Despite the overall downturn in the broader market, some local business owners are adapting and thriving in the changing market.
Ryan Doherty offers some interesting insights about his properties on East Fremont Street. He notes that his venues are not experiencing a decline in visitations, and in fact, his “door clicks” are remaining consistent.
Ryan also mentioned that they’ve been hosting special events to attract more people. He’s transformed the entire street into an entertainment zone, complete with popular DJs performing on a stage. It’s all free, and then everyone tends to check out the nearby venues afterward.
This strategy has been successful in driving revenue and reflects a dynamic shift in his business model.
Luxury Brands Scaling Back Investments
Frank Volk, an expert on commercial spaces in Las Vegas, notes that luxury brands were experiencing strong growth both in Las Vegas and globally until about a year ago.
However, with the recent slowdown in economic conditions, the luxury market has contracted significantly. Major brands such as Prada, Hermès, and LVMH have reduced their investments in Las Vegas, with only a few exceptions.
As a result, these brands are mostly inactive in the market at this time.
Costs Halt New Resorts
Developing new integrated resorts in Las Vegas has become increasingly challenging due to high construction costs, which average $2 million per key, combined with higher interest rates.
These financial pressures make it difficult for developers to justify new projects, so it is unlikely that we will see any new hotels being built in the near future.
What’s Next for Las Vegas
Despite the current challenges, investment continues. In fact, the experts we interviewed are very optimistic about the future.
Steve Hill states that the rise of experiential entertainment will be a game-changer for the visitor experience. Drawing parallels to the sold-out ABBA hologram shows in London, he highlights how immersive, non-traditional entertainment is set to redefine Las Vegas.
A prime example is Universal Studios’ Universal Horror Unleashed, a year-round horror attraction that recently opened at AREA15. This immersive experience is Universal’s first theme park in Las Vegas, featuring four haunted houses.
Alongside this, other entertainment-focused companies are bringing innovative projects to the city, with sports and other unique attractions playing a significant role in shaping Vegas’ future.
Netflix House
Netflix has gone all-in on immersion and is entering the experiential entertainment market with “Netflix House” opening in Las Vegas in 2027.
The 100,000 square foot venue will be located at BLVD on the Strip.
Fans of Netflix’s shows and movies will be able to get closer to their favorite stories through games, shopping, and eateries – all based on hit franchises like Squid Games and Stranger Things.
NBA Update
There have been discussions about the NBA coming to town for several years. According to insights shared by Steve Hill and Frank Volk, there is a strong consensus that it’s only a matter of time before we get an NBA team, whether through relocation or expansion.
Steve noted that the process is taking longer than anticipated, but the NBA recognizes that Las Vegas deserves to be part of the league. With its solid reputation as a basketball city and an excellent relationship with the NBA, he believes it is inevitable that an NBA team will arrive here.
In a related development, a source close to the situation – who was not present at the CCIM luncheon but played a key role in bringing in the Raiders – has indicated that we will indeed get an NBA team, and it will be a brand-new franchise.
While the exact location has yet to be determined, the most likely site is near the Strip, adjacent to the Rio. This is promising news for the city’s tourism, as it will attract more fans to town who want to support their favorite NBA team.
Athletics Stadium
The Oakland As are (fingers crossed) heading to Las Vegas soon. Construction for the new ballpark has already begun at the former site of the Tropicana. The 33,000-seat venue is set to open in 2028, with an estimated cost of $1.75 billion.
Although it seems like everything is in place, a significant amount of private funding still needs to be secured. (If it has been obtained, it hasn’t been announced yet.)
However, construction of the stadium is progressing, and hopefully the Athletics will be coming soon, bringing yet another sports team and a new reason for people to visit the city.
Food & Beverage + Entertainment Experiences
Frank Volk describes Las Vegas as a booming market for commercial real estate, especially on the Strip, where there’s still a lot of interest from tenants.
He points out that 80% of his leasing deals are in the food & beverage sector, largely due to the trend of combining dining with entertainment. Innovative concepts, like competitive socializing games such as Flight Club and Swingers golf, are popular.
Final Thoughts
Steve Hill calls his role “the best job in Nevada.” He believes that selling Las Vegas is easy. “Just say ‘Las Vegas,’ and people get excited. It’s a bucket-list destination like no other city in the world,” he says.
Hill wants to support new ideas for the city’s future instead of trying to control it. This focus on innovation helps keep Las Vegas fresh and brings in new investments and experiences.
With an extra $37 million added to the LVCVA’s advertising budget for FY2026, optimism runs high for a recovery in visitor numbers soon. With Hill in charge, we believe Las Vegas will continue to have a bright future.
Data in this article provided by:
